Calibrated confidence, de-reified value, repairable rationality.
The work is not a loose collection of topics. It is a single diagnostic program:
replace binary belief with calibrated confidence, strip moral language of illicit
metaphysical inflation, and ask where reasoning loses contact with the evidence it
already has access to.
Three questions organize the program. What should confidence do when evidence is
incomplete, noisy, or socially inconvenient? What remains of value-language when no
objective moral realm is assumed? And how should people, institutions, and AI-mediated
inquiry repair the gaps between evidence, perception, assertion, and commitment?
Epistemology
Credence before knowledge.
Belief is treated as a continuous evidential posture rather than a binary switch.
The central question is not whether an agent can say "I know," but how assigned
confidence should answer to evidence, uncertainty, defeaters, alternatives, and update
conditions.
Metaethics
Value without a moral realm.
Moral language is treated as a dense human practice that compresses affect, value,
vulnerability, social coordination, aversion, approval, and proposed regulation. The
mistake is to inflate that grammar into stance-independent moral furniture.
Rationality
Diagnosis before accusation.
Irrationality is decomposed into evidence-access failures, evidence-processing failures,
belief-integrity failures, public-speech distortions, institutional incentives, and AI
mediation risks. The point is repair, not name-calling.
01 / Epistemic Architecture
Evidence, perception, credence, and speech are separate layers.
The credencing project distinguishes the evidential situation from an agent's perception
of it, and distinguishes both from the confidence finally assigned. This avoids treating
disagreement, uncertainty, ignorance, rationalization, and bad faith as one blunt failure.
It also forces public language to carry its epistemic load: confidence bands, sources,
defeaters, live alternatives, and update conditions must be expressible without collapsing
into fake precision or flat assertion.
02 / Metaethical Deflation
Non-realism removes a realm, not human stakes.
The metaethical work rejects the idea that denying objective moral facts licenses cruelty
or empties life of significance. Pain, trust, coercion, repair, dependency, flourishing,
law, reputation, social order, and emotional gravity remain. What disappears is the
extra metaphysical layer that redescribes human reactions as objective wrongness, guilt,
permission, desert, or moral authority.
03 / Rational Repair
Being intelligent is not the same as being updateable.
Rationality is treated as an alignment problem: can an agent, institution, or AI-assisted
workflow let evidence change confidence? Deep Rationality improves evidence search,
hypothesis comparison, base-rate awareness, and likelihood discipline. Core Rationality
asks whether the agent then assigns confidence in line with what they take the evidence
to support. The Credencing
project makes that repair explicit by treating belief as an assigned confidence level
that should expose its evidence, defeaters, alternatives, and update conditions. The
difficult cases are not simple ignorance, but motivated non-updating, assertion pressure,
institutional denial, felt certainty, and satisfying explanations that outrun support.
Paper trail
Relevant publication records